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Undeterred by our very mixed results in the past, we are back for a 10th consecutive year with our annual predictions of what we expect to see in the motorcycle world in the 12 months to come. Here are the bold prognostications we'll be regretting a year from now.
Zack Courts: A dad bike for Dunbar and filling the KTM vacuum
Our ol' friend Spurgeon Dunbar, once a mighty and formidable motorcyclist, is now a father. And we all know that means he'll be muted and lame now, unwilling to crash through the underbrush of life with his ADV attitude. A dad bike lies in wait. You mark my words, Common Treaders, Spurg will enter his mature-middle-age period and get himself a motorcycle that makes sense. BMW RT, perhaps? A Kawasaki Versys? Or will he finally make his father proud and buy a V-Strom? I think we will find out sometime in 2025.
My long-shot prediction is trickier to quantify, and it even makes me a little sad to say out loud. One of the most inescapable themes in motorcycling at the end of 2024 was the flood of bad press and speculation around KTM. Headwinds in sales, financial prospecting, and ultimately making moves to avoid technical bankruptcy are each examples of seismic news for one of the world's blue-ribbon motorcycle brands. Cynically, this seems like a good time for KTM's competition to swoop in and take some market share. Especially in the off-road market, where KTM has had huge success and loyalty over the past decade or so, for a variety of reasons.
One or more of the Japanese brands could take advantage of this, surely. But I'm not sure any brand is positioned as well as Triumph, which started making dirt bikes recently, is expanding its catalog and footprint in the off-road space, and is a premium European marque that already stands toe-to-toe with KTM in other arenas. Calling it a prediction is generous, but I can imagine a world where Triumph accelerates its dirt-bike focus to include a list of machines that looks remarkably like KTM's, and places it on more stable financial ground.
Dustin Wheelen: Tough times ahead and Buell finally produces
My motorcycle news feed looked very different in 2021 and 2022. Back then, brands reported year-over-year growth, quarter after quarter. Both domestic and international markets regularly broke sales records, too. It was the bright silver lining on a very dark cloud. Those days are over.
The post-pandemic boom showed its first signs of slowing in 2023. Although U.S. sales figures were encouraging in early 2024, Q3 data told a very different story. Indian, Harley, and KTM all reported lower sales during that period — the repercussions of which are far more far-reaching for KTM. With consumer confidence in the balance and a new administration (and its proposed tariffs) entering office, tough times may lie ahead for U.S. dealers. That's why I anticipate U.S. motorcycle sales to continue trending downward in 2025.
One way to stoke sales is to release a new model. That idea isn't lost on Buell (despite all appearances), and I believe the American OEM will finally release its long-awaited Super Cruiser in 2025. (I say this while crossing my fingers and clutching my rabbit's foot.) I'm casting this as my long-shot prediction for good reason.
When Bill Melvin resurrected Buell in 2021, the brand promised 10 new models by 2024. Well, 2024 has come and gone and not one new bike has rolled out of its Michigan headquarters. On the other hand, Buell opened Super Cruiser pre-orders in September. It also estimates that initial units will ship to customers in the fall of 2025. Is my optimism misplaced? Maybe. But, I'll take my chances (knocks on wood).
Spurgeon Dunbar: Euro dual-sports and KTM trimmed to the core
Before getting to my long-shot prediction, I'm going to kickstart things with what I am going to call a "low-hanging fruit" prediction: We're going to see at least two new dual-sport models announced out of Europe in 2025 and not from KTM or BMW, but rather from Ducati and Triumph. This is an easy prediction to make because they already have the platform bikes begging for an adaptation.
When Zack weighed Ducati's Hypermotard 698 Mono for Daily Rider back in April, it tipped the scales at 352 pounds, gas and all. Give that bike a long-travel suspension, a 21-inch front and 18-inch rear tire, a different set of camshafts, and a quick revision of the electronics to include off-road ABS and an Enduro throttle map, and you're looking at a sub-385-pound, big dual-sport, or lightweight ADV bike. Triumph's path is arguably a bit more difficult, because their 250-X and newly announced 450-RC (Ricky Carmichael edition) motocross bikes would have to go through an overhaul to meet emissions requirements before receiving a headlight, turn signal kit, and license plate bracket. And while I understand how that is a complete oversimplification of what would be needed to make those bikes street-legal, I would like to believe this is already in the works. Come on Bologna and Hinckley, give me a win!
Speaking of needing a win, KTM could use one as well in 2025, but I don't think it’s going to come easy. Their missteps in expansion efforts have left them exposed and vulnerable in a less-than-favorable-to-motorcycles post-COVID landscape. PIERER Mobility AG, the holding company of KTM AG, consists not just of KTM but also Husqvarna, GASGAS, MV Agusta, WP Suspension, and FELT bicycles. While KTM and Husky make up the lion's share of the sales, one has to wonder about the fate of the other brands. While news out of Europe is already suggesting that PIERER Mobility AG will have to relinquish its stake in MV Agusta, I don't think cuts will stop there. My long-shot prediction is that by this time next year KTM AG will be back to its core brands of KTM, Husqvarna, and WP.
Lance Oliver: Below Zero and racing records
I was thinking of predicting that the federal government would slap tariffs on Harley-Davidson for importing Revolution Max models built in Thailand to the U.S. market, but I'm going to assume the second Trump administration will have so many other big battles going on in 2025 that it won't have time for something as unimportant as a few Pan Americas and Nightsters. So I'm going in a different direction and predicting that the Zero XB and XE off-road motorcycles will become the best-selling Zero models. That's weaker praise for Zero than it may appear. One reason I think the new X models will be the company's best sellers is because Zero sells so few motorcycles overall.
In my (now oft-stated) opinion, manufacturers have been too focused on building high-horsepower, sophisticated (and painfully expensive) electric sport and adventure motorcycles, and in the process have struggled to reach production, or sell more than a handful of motorcycles, or have gone out of business entirely. Meanwhile, the urban streets have been taken over by electric bicycles and the trails are traversed by Sur-Rons and Talarias. But now it appears Zero is finally going where those missed opportunities lie, if belatedly. (Don't even get me started on LiveWire.)
My long-shot prediction consists of a list of racing milestones I expect to see in 2024. Prediction one: Jett Lawrence will tie — but not break — the record for wins in one season in Monster Energy AMA Supercross. Jeremy McGrath won 14 of 15 races in 1996 and Ricky Carmichael won 14 of 16 in 2001. I'm saying Lawrence will win 14 of 17 in 2025. Prediction two: In MotoAmerica, Cameron Beaubier will break the record currently held by Josh Hayes for most career wins across all classes of AMA Pro roadracing. This probably would have already happened if Beaubier hadn't missed races due to nasty injuries the last two years, a concussion in 2023 and a broken heel in 2024. Predictions three and four: Marc Márquez will surpass Ángel Nieto for third place in all-time Grand Prix wins (easy pick) and Toprak Razgatlıoğlu will surpass Álvaro Bautista for second on the all-time World Superbike wins list (that will be a little harder). I'm confident I'll get at least one or two right. It will be a long shot to get all four of them right.
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